Owing to the recent thaw in relations between India and Pakistan, there has been a renewed push by both sides to finally resolve the long-standing conflict over the disputed territory of Kashmir. Tensions in the region have calmed dramatically since the two nuclear powers came perilously close to waging yet another war in 1999, and for more than a year there have been on-again off-again efforts at initiating substantive dialogue. Even the much-adored superstars of India’s Bollywood film industry seem to have been afflicted by this fresh outbreak of optimism, having of late vocalized pleas for peace and expressed interest in working on joint projects with their counterparts across the border. With the foremost arbiters of Indian popular opinion so gung-ho about bringing peace to the region, and government officials apparently willing to come to the bargaining table, surely something must come of all this long-awaited talk of peace?

With all due respect to these noble intentions, I must, in good conscience, debunk these naïve hopes for a reconciliation that simply will not materialize. Don’t get me wrong now, I am all for peace in the subcontinent. The decades-old conflict has had a devastating human toll, and has severely impeded the progress of both India and Pakistan in the post-colonial period. Moreover, the constant threat of nuclear war is a matter of global concern to say the least. In spite of my streak of stubborn pessimism, even I must admit that the timing does seem right for bona fide progress. For one thing, both sides have by this point come to recognize that a permanent settlement to the Kashmir entanglement is in their overall best interests. Gratuitous defense spending has diverted much-needed resources from developing social infrastructure in both countries, while the geo-political and economic importance of the region has reinforced the need for stability. Therefore, the prospect of ending these protracted hostilities should theoretically be welcomed by both sides.

Regrettably, as clear-cut and rational as such decisions may seem, they are invariably highly charged with emotion, zealous patriotism, and political considerations. Considering that the conflict over Kashmir has been raging since even before India and Pakistan attained independence in 1947, it is very unlikely that it can be successfully contained in the near future. Convincing two nations who have defined themselves by their hatred for the other that they should now instead shake hands and be friends is indeed a daunting task. The only way to truly usher in a lasting peace is to eradicate these engrained enmities. This will only happen as part of long-term graduated peace process. While there has been some noteworthy progress in the reestablishment of trade and transport ties, these steps are largely symbolic and much work needs to be done to bring about any dramatic shift in relations.

The other major roadblock to peace is the fact that the internal politics of each nation has depended so extensively on exploiting the explosive Kashmir issue for electoral gains. After nearly sixty years of rabble-rousing, politicians in both countries find it near-impossible to take a soft-stance on Kashmir without alienating their power base. In fact, when Pervez Musharaff, Pakistan’s military ruler, adopted a concessionary stance, he met with bitter opposition from hardliners along with several attempts on his life. The political leadership in both countries is powerless in the face of a public that is hesitant to compromise on such a contentious issue, and when faced with this quandary, they are quite content with maintaining the status quo and cranking up the hawkish rhetoric when need be.

Moreover, even if India and Pakistan were to agree on a solution it remains to be seen whether tranquility will return to the once-idyllic Kashmir Valley. The Pakistanis, in propping up Kashmiri ‘freedom fighters’ and having them wage a proxy war on their behalf, have unknowingly created a formidable force that has begun to assert autonomy from Pakistani control. These non-state players are unlikely to be placated by diplomacy, and could very well keep the fight for an Azad Kashmir free of Indian as well as Pakistani interference going full-speed even after an accord is reached between the two nations.

Unfortunately, cracks in the transitory peace are already appearing, with India recently accusing Pakistan of violating a 14-month old ceasefire. Although I too dream of the day that Kashmir will at last be rid of the unrelenting warfare that has transformed this former paradise on earth into a hell-zone, I am unwilling to believe that the temporary thaw we are seeing now will suddenly bring about final resolution.