For the last few weeks, political pundits and analysts have been embroiled in a bitter debate over Iraq. The debate is not so much over any specific issues as mere terminology. The phrase in question here is of course “civil war.” Is Iraq in a civil war right now? On a practical level, it doesn’t really matter whether we call it a Civil War or Sectarian Violence or Factious Armed Conflict. (After all, in Ireland, they like to call their problems “The Troubles,” which seems a little too quaint for my taste.) The more important issue is whether Iraq can survive whatever it is that it’s going through as one healthy country.

But on a symbolic level, perhaps the terminology does matter. In the psyche of the average American, the phrase “civil war” represents the ultimate division of a nation, the American Civil War, one of the darkest moments in our history. According to President Bush, we were meant to liberate the Iraqi people and deliver them to better times, not fill their history with more dark moments. So if the majority of Americans were to believe that Iraq is immersed in “civil war,” the administration would suffer a major public relations failure, having lost yet another justification for the invasion of Iraq. (Remember that whole WMD thing? Yeah, that was kind of a failure too.) This turns out to be exactly the case. According to a recent CBS News poll, an overwhelming seventy-eight percent of Americans believe that there is a civil war going on in Iraq.

But again, the deeper issue is not what we decide to call the problems in Iraq. It is the underlying fact that Iraq is driving further and further away from stability and order. It is unclear exactly how many casualties have occurred as a result of inter-Iraqi violence since the 2003 US invasion, but the numbers are clearly high, possibly in the tens of thousands. For a long time we saw a Sunni minority performing acts of terrorism and violence against the majority Shiites, who wield more political power in a post-invasion Iraq. Earlier this year, however, we saw the Shiites striking back with equal brutality.

The spark for the recent waves of violence came from the bombing of the Al Askari Mosque on February 22nd, 2006. The mosque was one of the holiest sites for Shiites, and was presumably destroyed by Sunni extremists, though no group claimed responsibility. The outrage of the Shiites swelled as at least 165 people died in the immediate aftermath of the bombing (over 100 bullet-riddled bodies were found just the next day). Since then the violence has been coming in waves, with increasing numbers of Shiites taking up arms.

The central Iraqi government is gradually becoming obsolete as the people take matters into their own hands. More militias are forming, and are gaining in strength, while the Iraqi police force and army are weakening. Even some of the ranks of the police and the army are abandoning their duties to pursue their own sectarian interests. The militias are carrying out their own twisted brand of vigilante justice, spurred by ethnic differences more than by any particular principles or ideals. Most of the violence coming out of Iraq these past few weeks has been the direct result of either the actions of these militias or the retaliation to those actions.

On top of all this, the National Assembly, elected last December, has yet to form a government. Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari is under a great deal of pressure from the US and from within Iraq to resign, as he has been unable to successfully form a government. The Constitution of Iraq, ratified in October of last year, is still very vague and in need of heavy amendment. Basically, the central government of Iraq is more of a tattered rag than the strong pillar of support for the rest of the country that it needs to be.

The situation in Iraq is extremely bleak. We are not seeing a “civil war” in the conventional—that is, the American—sense. There are no two clearly distinct groups neatly geographically confined on each side. The motives of each sect are also more complex, as no clear, widespread separatist goals are taking hold. So call it a civil war if you will; I think of it more as a disease. Acute Pan-Iraqi Antagonism. And the prognosis? Extremely grim.