Since avian influenza first hatched in South Korea in 2003, more than 166 Asian deaths and 273 cases worldwide have been linked to the epidemic, putting countries in Europe, Asia and Africa on the alert to prevent further loss of human life. Those who catch the most pathogenic strain of the disease can die as a result of viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress. In the space of four years, the disease has struck in Russia, Romania, Turkey, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and possibly even Greece, and is suspected to originate in migrating birds, particularly from Siberia. This year however, the flu has also cropped up in Japan, Hungary, Nigeria and Pakistan, indicating that the flu continues to spread geographically outward, causing fear that the disease can eventually spread to the U.S. via Alaska and possibly even harm the U.S. military.

Pakistan has been the most recent country to suffer an outbreak, the presence of which was discovered in February. In Pakistan, the avian flu is believed to have arisen in home-raised chicken and peacocks, though not in poultry farms. Supposedly, the free-range, home-raised poultry receive more exposure to the wild birds which migrate from Siberia, and are subsequently infected. So far, India has been free of the avian flu, but, according to Business Standard, animal experts believe that “the threat of introduction of the infection through the wild birds flying across the country’s long border with Pakistan cannot be totally ruled out.”

There are many strains of avian influenza, but the most harmful has been identified as the highly pathogenic H5N1, which is responsible for the deaths of chickens and renders poultry and poultry trade high-risk. Though ingestion of infected poultry is of great concern, it has been proven that H5N1 can also infect humans through the upper respiratory tract. Leading scientists in Hong Kong have confirmed that the virus can infect the nasopharynx, which is located behind the nose and above the throat, thus annihilating the previous belief that the strain would have to penetrate deep into the lungs in order to establish infection. The reason that the upper respiratory tract had been passed over as a possible source of infection is that this region does not contain enough alpha 2-3 receptors which were initially believed to be necessary to the infection process. With this no longer being the case, microbiologist Malik Peiris says that “it raises the question of whether there may be other receptors the virus is using and highlights the point that further study is needed.”

Further alarm is created by the fact that the flu may also be transferable among humans. Since the H5N1 strain tends to mutate quickly, it is likely that it can mutate into a strain that is easily transmitted through human physical contact. If this ever occurs, there may be no stopping the epidemic’s rapid destruction of the global population.

Tests for signs of avian flu in the U.S. have revealed the presence only of the mildest strains of avian flu. In the nationwide U.S. Geological Survey, 74,506 samples of wild birds were tested, and of those, samples in Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland tested positive for low-pathogenic H5N1, which does not dangerously affect birds or people. Though this strain is low-risk, it is uncertain, and of great concern, how they arrived here in the first place.

Because of its proximity to Asia, special attention has been given to Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and experts from other federal agencies. Although no signs of avian flu have been detected in Alaskan samples, the high likelihood of bird migration to Alaska from Asia makes it almost inevitable that the bird flu may arrive in North America.

There also lies the possibility that the avian flu will strike the U.S. military, particularly those currently located in Iraq and Pakistan. If even the military avoids ingesting local poultry, the spread of avian flu is likely through contact with and proximal breathing around bird carcasses, droppings and even feathers. This fact not only leaves the U.S. military vulnerable, but, if the H5N1 strain ever mutates into one that can be intra-humanly transferable, creates an entryway for the disease to U.S. soil as troops return home.

So far, steps to eradicate the disease have consisted of the slaughter of nearly 160 million birds worldwide since the first outbreak in 2003. However, a less hit-or-miss solution is being attempted in the U.S. after it was discovered that Tamiflu, a vaccine currently used by the U.S. to ward off regular influenza, has also proven effective against the H5N1 strain. After President Bush brought the subject of avian flu to Congress for debate in late 2005, the Senate added $4 billion to a Pentagon spending bill for the purpose of dealing with the effects of avian flu should it spread to the American population, $3 billion of which would be used to stock up on Tamiflu. So far, U.S health agencies only have about 2 million doses of Tamiflu, which can only cover 1% of the current population. The $4 billion which were allocated to the Pentagon promises to cover 50% of the U.S. population.

While it may seem comforting that the U.S. has the money and ability to create a defense against avian influenza, this defense hardly seems infallible given the uncertainties regarding the transformation and spread of the disease. Meanwhile, other nations may not have the necessary funds to stock Tamiflu, and the international approach to containing the disease has been large-scale slaughter of poultry. It is evident that these solutions are neither foolproof nor inexpensive. Additionally, scientists’ inability to predict or control the spread of bird flu adds further layers of danger and insecurity. For these reasons, the avian flu is likely to be the source of much global anticipation in the near future.