"Our 44th President" is a new series that foretells who will win in 2008, and why.

It is true that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are dominating news about the Democratic primary. But it is also true that voting does not start for another six months. Victors in the polls win headlines, but at this stage of campaigning, that is all they win. In the early stages of the 2004 primary, Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt led the polls. Even with only two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, Howard Dean and Gephardt were still on top--but Kerry and Edwards came in first and second. In December 2003, a month before the New Hampshire primary, John Kerry was polling at a lowly 3% in a CBS poll--behind even Al Sharpton.

The same thing could, and likely will, happen in 2008. A June Mason-Dixon poll shows that the leading candidate in the all-important Iowa caucuses, coming in at a commanding 27%, is not Clinton or Obama, but... undecided. And in New Hampshire, multiple polls show that the vast majority of voters who support a candidate are willing to change their minds. The New York Times tells us, "The earliest polls say more about name recognition than likely votes."

The Times is right. In 2004, as a former Vice Presidential nominee and a former House Minority Leader, Lieberman and Gephardt were the only Democrats voters had heard of, so they led in the polls. In the end, however, the three contenders that mattered most in the election all started out with absolutely no name recognition whatsoever. Voters tend to learn more about their choices in the final weeks of a campaign, and that could very well happen again this cycle. Obama, Clinton, and Edwards may be the familiar names now, but the political turf of January will not be that of July. In other words, it is foolish to rule out Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, or even Chris Dodd this early, and my money is on Biden. (Disclosure: I am a member of the Biden for President New Hampshire Steering Committee.)

Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) is the best campaigner of the bunch. The current top three Democrats are relegated to rock-star rallies before audiences of thousands, limiting their ability to truly connect with voters in the kitchen campaign style early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have come to expect. People come to hear the top three speak out of curiosity, but often leave as soon as the speech is over. Biden, on the other hand, may be drawing smaller crowds, but 95% of those who come stay until he leaves, and 85% give their e-mail addresses to the campaigns. When talking to voters, he asks them what they do, what they care about, and how they live their lives. And when you do talk to him, he has an answer. I have never seen anyone with such a strong command of the facts. Biden understands the details of every issue, and has a plan whether it is within his committee purview or not. He never ducks questions; I have seen him given thorough answers about Iraq, Darfur, Hurricane Katrina, climate change, energy, student loans, teacher pay, health care, veterans' benefits, and more. That is true retail politics.

As Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs, former Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and a thirty-year veteran of the Senate, Biden has far more experience than any of the "top tier" candidates, particularly in foreign policy matters. He is the only candidate to offer a detailed plan for Iraq, viewable at planforiraq.com. He is the author of the Violence Against Women Act and the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, and is the Senate's strongest supporter of first responders (police and fire fighters). He also has a compelling life story, which includes losing his family in a tragic 1972 car accident and spending seven months in the hospital in 1989. Combined with his bipartisan reputation and his personable style, his is a winning message that will attract voters once they hear about it.

The press coverage needed to get that message out has already started. National columnists David Broder, David Brooks, and Eleanor Clift have all written recent columns about Biden. The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Boston Globe, and Slate have profiled him. He has performed exceedingly well in all three Democratic debates, receiving glowing coverage on the cable news networks as a result. This may not be much compared to Obama and Clinton, but it is momentum, and it is building on itself.

True, Biden is a senator, and no sitting senator has been elected president since 1960, but this will not matter in 2008. Five of the six viable Democratic candidates, including the entire top tier, are Senators. So too are the two Republicans with the best chance of winning their party's nomination, John McCain and Fred Thompson. Being a senator is not a liability when running against another senator. I also feel it is a fluke of history that senators have not won the presidency, and it is not a pattern worthy of the serious attention we give it. With an exception for 1996, no general election from 1976 through 2000 included a senator, and in 2004, Sen. John Kerry lost, but mostly because he ran a lousy campaign against a war president.

The one thing the Biden campaign is missing is money, but that will not be a worry. Biden has been tied up with Foreign Relations Committee hearings on Iraq and Russia, but once he is able to devote himself to campaigning and fundraising with the August recess, the money will come. Biden may never catch up to the $30 million fiscal year quarters of Obama and Clinton, but he does not need to. You can only buy so much airtime, and you can only put up so many banners. It will likely take the Biden campaign about $25 million to be competitive, and anything beyond that just amounts to statistics to impress reporters.

The press and money will come, and the foundation is already in place. The Biden campaign has strong organizations in Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The senator has won more endorsements from the Iowa state legislature than any other candidate and is a favorite among black leaders in South Carolina as well. By January, voters will have tired of the constant coverage of Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, and chances are good that one of these three will have committed some sort of knock-out gaffe to take him or her out of contention, like frontrunners Gary Hart and Howard Dean did in 1988 and 2004. Keep your eye on Biden: He is the most qualified candidate in the field, and he can win.

If you are interested in joining the Dartmouth for Biden blitz list, blitz "joebiden".