A surge of Arctic air tied to the polar vortex is expected to push into much of the continental U.S. this week, setting the stage for a major winter storm that could disrupt parts of the South and Central U.S. and potentially graze southern New England late in the weekend, according to a WBUR forecast story republished by NHPR on Tuesday.
The most immediate impact for New England is expected to be the cold. The WBUR report says “true arctic air” arrives Friday night into the weekend, with wind chills dropping well below zero across the region and daytime temperatures struggling to climb out of the low teens on Saturday. While the storm’s main energy is forecast to track south of New England, forecasters say a small shift north could bring a few inches of accumulating snow to parts of the region.
The WBUR report describes the setup as a “classic battleground” between cold, dense Arctic air plunging south and moist, warmer air moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, a combination it calls “meteorological rocket fuel for winter storms.” That clash is expected to fuel a wide-ranging storm stretching from late Thursday into Friday and continuing through the weekend along the Eastern Seaboard.
According to the report, the storm is expected to ramp up in intensity by late Thursday into Friday, with widespread snow, sleet and freezing rain possible from northern Texas through Oklahoma and Arkansas and into Missouri and Tennessee. The story says those conditions “could be enough to snarl interstates and threaten power grids” in those states.
Farther south and east, the report warns of a “dangerous icing scenario” in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, where freezing rain could coat surfaces in a thick layer of ice. The WBUR story describes the potential effects as “power-line-snapping, tree-limb-breaking, travel-halting ice” that could leave some areas without electricity for days.
On the storm’s southern edge, where warmer air remains in place, the WBUR report says severe thunderstorms are possible, including strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
For New England, WBUR says the “main energy of the storm should slide to our south late Sunday into Monday,” but the region could still be brushed by the system’s northern fringe. “While the heaviest snow likely stays south of us, a few inches of accumulating snow can’t be ruled out, especially if the storm nudges northward just a bit,” the report says.
Even if the heaviest precipitation stays south, the WBUR story emphasizes that the cold air settling into the region will be a significant hazard on its own. The report says Friday night will bring wind chills “well below zero across the region.” On Saturday, it says highs will “struggle to get into the low teens,” and with gusty winds, “feels-like” temperatures will hover around or just below zero for much of the day. The report adds that the most intense cold is expected across northern New England, with “10 to 25 below zero” wind chills.
The WBUR story attributes the cold snap to the polar vortex, which it describes as typically acting like a “keeper” of cold air over the Arctic. This month, the report says, a sudden stratospheric warming event caused the vortex to wobble and stretch, allowing Arctic air to spill south into North America.
The report also points to broader atmospheric patterns, noting that the U.S. is in a La Niña phase that typically pushes the jet stream north. However, WBUR says this year’s La Niña is “weak and fading toward ‘neutral’ status,” contributing to a more unstable pattern that has allowed cold air to dip much farther south than usual.
The WBUR story frames the broader winter as a mix of extremes. Statistically, it says, the season has seen several record-high temperatures across the country, but it adds that the intensity of the current cold outbreak is higher than average for this time of year. The report describes the moment as a “tug of war between long-term warming trends and short-term Arctic outbreaks.”
As for snowfall totals in New England, WBUR says the outcome depends on the storm track. The story says the storm is expected to dump snow across the country, but “how much, if any, New England gets depends on the track.”
In the nearer term, WBUR notes a relatively mild midweek for New England, with “pockets of light snow Wednesday evening into the overnight,” before the colder air arrives Friday night. The report suggests the region’s best chance for any snow from the larger storm would come late Sunday into Monday if the storm’s northern edge reaches far enough north.
Forecasters will be watching whether the storm’s track shifts, which would affect whether southern New England sees minimal impact or several inches of snow. Regardless, the WBUR report indicates that cold, gusty conditions will settle in for the weekend, with the harshest wind chills expected in northern parts of the region.
